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The thesis explores the lead-lag relations of Taiwan’s business cycles and a variety of production volume indexes. The business cycle is a series of peaks and troughs, and the manufacturing industries are always affected by business cycles. Therefore, we focus on six major manufacturing industries including ‘audio-visual electronic products’, ‘household air conditioners’, ‘household refrigerators’, ‘household laundry equipment’, ‘household fans’ and ‘other household appliances’. The main empirical findings are as follows. First, around the peaks, the production volumes of the two manufacturing industries, household fans and audio-visual electronic products reached their peaks first, which can be used as the leading indexes around their business peaks. The production volumes of the two manufacturing industries, household refrigerators and household air conditioners were most affected by the peaks. Second, around the troughs, the production volumes of two manufacturing industries, household refrigerators and household air conditioners reached their troughs first, which could be used as the leading indexes around the business troughs. The production volumes of the two manufacturing industries, audio-visual electronic products and household fans were most affected by the troughs. |