本研究主要探討過度自信與公司股利政策之間的關係，由於以台灣市場做為樣本之過度自信研究中大多圍繞在是否受家族企業影響，因此本研究則是改以加入市場景氣及投資人股利偏好等因素，探討經理人過度自信行為是否在不同之市場景氣及股利偏好下而有所不同。
本研究以台灣證券交易所掛牌之上市公司作為研究對象，樣本期間為2009年起至2016年，研究結果顯示(1)過度自信會使經理人會降低現金股利發放、增加股票股利發放，對股票購回政策雖為正向關係但並不顯著;(2)在景氣佳之市場下，將會降低過度自信對現金股利政策及股票股利政策影響之程度;股票購回政策結果並不顯著;(3)在市場偏好股利下，將會增加過度自信對股利政策影響之程度。

This study mainly discusses the relationship between managerial overconfidence and corporate dividend policy. While most previous overconfidence research in Taiwan focuses on the role of the family business, this study exclusively examines the economic cycle and the market's preference on dividend to explore whether the influence of managers' overconfidence on dividend policy varies with the economy and the market dividend premium. The sample of this study incorporates all listed companies on the Taiwan Stock Exchange from 2009 to 2016. The empirical findings show that:(1) In general, overconfidence causes managers to reduce the cash dividend distribution and increase the stock dividend payment, while the impact on the stock repurchase is positive but insignificant;(2) in the bull market, the influence of overconfidence decreases; (3) when the dividend premium is high, the impact of overconfidence becomes stronger.

第壹章 緒論 1
一、研究動機與目的 1
第貳章 文獻探討與研究假說 3
一、股利政策理論及相關文獻 3
二、過度自信對公司決策之影響 4
三、市場景氣相關文獻 5
四、市場偏好相關文獻 5
第參章 研究方法 7
一、研究樣本、資料來源與選取標準 7
二、變數定義 7
(一)應變數 7
(二)自變數 7
(三)控制變數 8
三、實證模型 11
第肆章 實證結果與分析 13
一、敘述性統計與相關分析 13
二、迴歸結果分析 15
(一)現金股利政策迴歸分析結果 16
(二)股票股利政策迴歸分析結果 17
(三)股票購回政策迴歸分析結果 18
第伍章 結論與建議 19
一、研究結論 19
二、研究限制及未來建議 21
參考文獻 23

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