臺灣對外貿易依存度高，商業貿易為國家存續的命脈，而政治斡旋的力量，又居外貿與企業經營環境具關鍵性的影響地位。臺灣總統身兼民意首長及行政統帥，擁有左右國家發展的權力與影響力，在不同候選人當選後，由於抱持之政治傾向與理念不同，其政見轉成為政策，將創造出迥異經濟景況、國際貿易策略及相關法規制定等舉措。
先前與總統大選相關之研究，多數針對其造成之股票市場、證券市場價值變化，以及對公司治理之影響有關。本研究則對總統當選人造成企業經營大環境之改變，使市場對企業未來景況產生不同預期，導致企業經理人可能採取調整財務報表手段，來進行盈餘管理之行為做探討。
實證部分，選定總統大選為重大事件日，採取事件研究法，紀錄自西元2000年以來五次總統大選之選舉結果出爐後之市場反應為自變數，即為投資大眾對該當選人對企業經營環境之期待，並將裁量性(流動)應計項目做為應變數，以迴歸模型分析二者間之關聯性；進一步以政策與經濟環境變動更劇烈之新總統就任年度獨立為子樣本，測試此情況下市場反應對盈餘管理行為之影響是否不同；觀察管理當局在經濟不確定性不同、市場反應好壞之各種情況下，是否進行盈餘管理安撫市場、鼓勵股東投資。
實證結果證實，裁量性應計項目不論於市場反應好壞之情況下，均沒有顯著因而被調整的情況，但不論在總樣本及子樣本中，裁量性流動應計項目均有顯著被影響的情況，顯示企業確實會進行調整裁量性流動應計項目之行為，因應總統大選之市場反應，且裁量性流動應計項目在經濟環境變動劇烈的情況下，是更能顯示企業盈餘管理手段的測量指標。

Since Taiwan’s dependence on foreign trade is quite high, trading is the lifeblood of the country. The force of political mediation has a critical influence on foreign trade and business environment. The President of Taiwan has the power to influence the development of the country. After different candidates are elected, because of different political inclinations and standpoints, their political views will be turned into policies that will create different economic conditions, related regulations and international trade strategies.
Most of the previous studies relating to the Taiwan presidential election were related to the changes in the stock market, the value of the securities market, and the impact on corporate governance. This study focuses on the change in the business environment of the president-elected person, which causes the market to have different expectations for the company's future situation, whether company managers take measures to make adjustments of the financial statements.
In the empirical part, an event study method was adopted, and to record the market reaction after the election results of the five presidential elections since the year AD 2000 as independent variables, indicating the expectation of the investors in the market. And discretionary (current) accruals as an dependent variable and use a regression model to explore the correlation between the two; and further test by taking the market reaction of new president elected years as independent variables since the policy and economic environment are more volatile. Testing under these circumstances, whether earnings management will be taking place to encourage shareholders.
The empirical results confirm that discretionary accruals are not significantly adjusted regardless of market responses. However, discretionary current accruals have been significantly adjusted both in the total sample and subsample. The situation shows that the company will indeed adjust the discretionary current accruals, in response to the market reaction of the presidential election, and discretionary current accruals are more able to show company’s earnings management under severe changes in the economic environment.

壹、 緒論
第一節 研究背景………………………………………………………………1
第二節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………………3
貳、 文獻探討
第一節 政治、選舉與經濟環境…………………………5
第二節 盈餘管理………………………………………………………8
參、 研究設計與方法
第一節 研究假說……………………………………………………15
第二節 研究方法與模型………………………………………17
第三節 研究資料與期間………………………………………21
第四節 研究變數定義……………………………………………22
肆、 實證結果與分析
第一節 敘述性統計及相關性分析………………………………25
第二節 迴歸分析結果……………………………………………37
第三節 額外測試………………………………………………………41
伍、 結論與建議
第一節 研究結論………………………………………………………45
第二節 研究貢獻………………………………………………………45
第三節 研究發展建議………………………………………………………46
第四節 研究限制………………………………………………………47
參考文獻
中文文獻…………………………………………………………………………49
英文文獻…………………………………………………………………………54

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