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The purpose of this research is to explore the lead/lag relationship between Taiwan's business cycles and the sales of department stores related to people`s livelihood retail industry. According to the release of Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economy, there are seven retail businesses such as “Retail Sales of Food, Beverages and Tobacco Products”, “Retail Sales of Fabrics, Clothing and Clothing Accessories”, “Retail Sales of Household Appliance and Supplies, “Retail Sales of Pharmaceutical and Medical Goods and Cosmetics”, “Retail Sales of Education and Entertainment Articles”, “Retail Sales of Information and Communications Equipments and Electrical Household Appliances”, and “Food and Beverage Services”. From January 1999 to December 2017, the amount of 228 months of the data allow is to compare the sales of those retail businesses with the Taiwan’s business cycles and the highs and lows of the stock market. The empirical findings are as the following results:
1.All of the seven types of the retail businesses related to department stores lag behind the peaks. This phenomenon indicates that the rising of business cycle has the effect of stimulation on the seven types of the retail businesses related to department stores. As a result, it creates the corporate business achievement and promotes more people to buy merchandise.
2.Among the seven types of the retail businesses related to department stores, the sales value of “Retail Sales of Pharmaceutical and Medical Goods and Cosmetics in Specialized Stores” and “Food and Beverage Services” lag the most, which indicates when the economy starts booming, two of these retail businesses can be considered key industries with marketing orientation to generate persistent retail sales.
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