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This research applies the Sales of Garment and Clothing Manufacturing which including “the Woven garment sales value”, “the Knitted garment sales value”, “ the Sweater sales value”, “the Textile cap sales value”, “the Textile gloves sales value”, “the Hosiery sales value”, “the Belt sales value”, and “other clothing”.
The data above are compiled by the Census and Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs from January 1993 to December, 2017, totaling 300 months. To explore the lead-lag relations between the Sales of Garment and Clothing Manufacturing and the Taiwan business cycle as well as the highs and lows of the stock market index. The results of this research are as follows:
First, the average value of eight variables in sales of garment and clothing Manufacturing reaches the highs by 0.93 month before the peak of business cycle and reach the lowest point by 0.1 month after the troughs of business cycle. This implies that while in prosperous period, Taiwanese are more willing to purchase garment and clothing. At the same time, the sales of garment and clothing manufacturing also reach the peak relatively.
Second, the average value of eight variables in Sales of Garment and Clothing Manufacturing reaches the lows after the trough of business cycle, which implies that while in the slow period, people become conservative in the purchase of garment and clothing. On average, people purchase more after the lows by 2-3 months. The evidence can serve as an indicator for garment and clothing manufacturing.
Third, the percentage difference the garment and clothing manufacturing is larger in the troughs than in the peak. It suggests that the garment and clothing manufacturing is affected less in the peaks.
Keywords: Business Cycle, Garment and Clothing Manufacturing |