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Wendan is a seasonal fruit of Mid-Autumn Festival. The main farming areas are Tainan, Hualien, Miaoli and other counties. The average annual harvest is between 60 and 80 thousand tons. During the data years (1978-2020), the export volume was less than 10% of the harvest. Domestic sales were the major consumption way. The main distribution channels for the fruit in the farm land include self-sale by farmers, purchased by business owners and auctions in the wholesale market. In eastern Taiwan, if the fruits are not sold before the Mid-Autumn Festival, most of them had no choice but to be discarded. Since the Mid-Autumn Festival is the fifteenth day of the eighth lunar month, it is not a fixed date and would be between September 8 and October 4. It's belived that the date affects the time for distribution of Wendan and the eralyer dates would be hampers to the farm price.
In order to clarify factors affecting the farm price of Wendan, annual production, WTO accession, GDP annual growth rate per capita (prosperity), population, consumer price index as well as the number of days between Bailu and Mid-Autumn Festival were included as the control variables to perform stepwise regression. Results show that factors such as population, production, accession to WTO, and the number of days between Bailu and Mid-Autumn Festival all have a significant impact on the farm price of Wendan. The most important one is population. Farm price increases 8.74 NT$/kg for human population increased by every 1 million. An increase of 10 thousand tons of annual production reduces the price by 3.06 NT$/kg. WTO accession reduces the price by 9.96 NT$/kg. The price increases by 0.30 NT$/kg for every additional day between Bailu and Mid-Autumn Festival. After converting the production and population into per capita supply, it was found that the prosperity has a negative effect on the price of Wendan. As the annual growth rate of GDP per capita increased by 1%, the price of Wendan decreases by 0.86 NT$/kg. According to the relationship between the volume and the price in the wholesale market, Wendan belongs to the category of festive goods in Taiwan.
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