|
The purpose of this thesis is to explore the lead-lag relations of Taiwan’s business cycles to a Petrochemical Related Industries Manufacturing for the production valve of six major manufacturing industries.They include ‘Manufacturing of Plastic Products’ , ‘Manufacturing of Rubber Products’, ‘Manufacturing of Cosmetics and Cleaning Products’, ‘Manufacturing of Manmade Fiber’, ‘Manufacturing of Paints, Varnishes, Lacquers, Dyeing Mills and Dyestuff’ and ‘Manufacturing of Pesticides’, which were issued by the Department of Statistics, MOEA. The sample period covers from Jan 1994 to Dec 2018, a total of 300 months. The main finding are as follows: First, Around the peaks of the Taiwan's business cycle and stock index, the Taiwan's business cycle and stock index lead the production value of six Petrochemical Related Industries Manufacturing and reaches their peaks first, indicating the Taiwan's business cycle and stock index can be used as the leading indicators around the business cycle and stock index troughs. The economy has larger impacts on the production value of Petrochemical Related Industries Manufacturing. Second, Around the troughs of the Taiwan's business cycle and stock index, the Taiwan's business cycle and stock index lead production value of Material, production value of six major manufacturing industries and reaches their troughs first. Taiwan's business cycle and stock index can be used as the leading indicators around the business cycle and stock index troughs. The economy has larger impacts on the production value of these six Petrochemical Related Industries Manufacturing. Third, around the business cycle reach to the peaks and troughs: the percentage difference between the production values of the six Petrochemical Related Industries Manufacturing is between 1.98% and 8.44%. Indicating that the production value of the s six Petrochemical Related Industries Manufacturing are not the same as the peak or the troughs of the market, and the production value is relatively stable.
|