本篇研究論文檢驗投資人投票行為是否與其交易決策具有關聯性，我們假設若某縣(市)區域政黨偏好屬於國民黨，其區域內投資人傾向買入較多的中概股。本篇研究論文使用券商分行交易資料，並且將其由分行級別轉為城市級別。經由實證分析，我們發現偏好國民黨的區域，投資人確實於選舉前顯著買入和賣出更多的中概股。除此之外，若某縣(市)區域發生政黨輪替，由民進黨轉為國民黨執政，亦會於選舉後顯著買入和賣出更多的中概股。我們也發現偏好國民黨的區域，投資人於選舉前交易中概股的績效具有顯著相對的額外損失。另外，此次交易績效無論獲利或損失，皆不影響投資人於下次選舉的投票行為。

This paper examines whether investors’ voting behaviors relate with their trading decisions. We suppose that the investors live in KMT-dominated regions are prone to buy more China concepts stocks. This paper utilizes detailed transaction data transformed from branch-level to city-level of every brokerage branch in Taiwan, and we find support for our conjecture, that is, investors live in KMT-dominated regions buy and sell more China concepts stocks significantly before the election. In addition, if there is any party alternation in counties (cities), for instance DPP incumbent is replaced by KMT challenger, investors live in these kind of regions buy and sell more China concepts stocks significantly after the election. We demonstrate that the performance of trading China concepts stocks before the election is significantly additional loss for those investors live in KMT-dominated regions. However, the above loss won’t change their voting behaviors in the next election.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目標 1
第二章 文獻回顧 5
第三章 樣本資料 7
第一節 交易資料 7
第二節 選舉資料 9
第三節 敘述性統計量 9
第四章 實證分析 11
第一節 圖表實證 11
第二節 投票行為與中概股交易 12
第三節 政黨輪替與選舉後中概股交易 15
第四節 投票行為與中概股績效 16
第五節 下次選舉投票行為與中概股績效 17
第五章 附加性檢測 19
第一節 替代選舉資料與中概股交易 19
第二節 替代選舉資料與中概股績效 20
第六章 結論 23
參考文獻 25

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