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This study attempts to explore the relevance of real estate transaction with the economic cycle by using the registered record of land and building transactions in various counties and cities in Taiwan (Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Kinmen County, Keelung City and Hualien County) as variables in the period of January 2000 to December 2019. Adopting the economic cycle indicators compiled by the National Development Council, the weighted stock price index of the TEJ database, and the variables of this study, the relationship between the leading and lagging situation at the corresponding time, the degree of influence and the sequence of leading and lagging are discussed, which results in the following three main conclusions:1. Land and building transactions lag behind during an economic trough, implying that economic recovery has a stimulating effect on real estate transactions , boosting real estate vitality. Hence, the economic performance is a leading indicator for the construction-related industries. During the economic trough period, the land transaction in Keelung City is demonstrated as the leading indicator, while the building transactions in Taipei city and Taoyuan turn out to be lagging indicators, which can be used as an important basis for preliminary judgment.2. In both peak and trough period, land transactions lag behind building transactions, indicating that regardless of the economic performance, the transaction volume of building transaction can be utilized as an indicator for land transactions.3 The fluctuation of building transactions is less than land transactions, in either economic upturn or downturn, yet the gap between the two is more prominent in the time of economic declination, which indicates that regardless of whether the market is in a period of prosperity or recession, the degree of impact to building transactions is less than that of land transactions. The land transactions display the greatest variation in Keelung in both economic upheaval and slagging period, while Hualien’s building transactions has the least impact in the economic peak time. |