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This research studies the lead-lag roles of the sales of Taiwan’s four imported alcoholic beverages, including beer, wine, brandy, and whiskey over Taiwan’s economic cycles from January 2000 to December 2019, totaling 240 months. Using data from National Development Commission, Customs Administration of the Ministry of Finance, and International Trade Bureau of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the empirical conclusions are as follows: First, beer, wine, brandy, and whiskey all laggging behind the peaks acting as lagging indicators important for importers to reduce the imports and avoid excessory inventory over the peaks. Second, similarly, except whiskey, they reach bottoms after the economic bottoms. Therefore, beer, wine, and brandy are lagging indicators ovrt the bottoms. Third, using the derived difference percentages, this research observes that the imported fruit alcoholic beverages fluctuate more than the grain alcoholic beverages both over the peaks and bottoms of the ecocomy and the market. |