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This study focused on the main ingredients of Taiwan's rice package industry (including frozen meat, frozen aquatic foods, frozen vegetable fruits, soybean oil, white rice milling) as a research project, and studied the correlation with Taiwan's economic cycle over a period of 240 months from January 2000 to December 2019. Using the information of the National Development Commission and the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economy, the following six conclusions were obtained: First, frozen meat, frozen aquatic food, frozen vegetable fruit, soybean oil, white rice milled at the peak of the boom, all lagged behind the peak of the business climate, so the peak of the business climate for the rice package industry and related industries are lagged indicators, can be used as an important basis for pre-judgment. Second, frozen meat, frozen aquatic food, frozen vegetable fruits, white rice milled ahead of the bottom of the boom valley, only soybean oil (including salad oil) lags behind the bottom of the boom, so the bottom of the boom valley for the rice package industry and related industries for the leading indicators, but soybean oil (including salad oil) as a lagged indicator, can be used as an important basis for pre-judgment. Third, the five major ingredients in this study in the differential percentage study, because the rice package industry and related industries are the necessities of people's livelihood, the five major ingredients in this study are not fluctuating much. Fourth, in the sales value, the peak or bottom of the business climate frozen meat, frozen aquatic food, white rice milling almost all growth, can be used as a prejudgment of procurement behavior. Fifth, soybean oil depends on imports, so international futures affect prices, non-domestic supply and demand can affect, so procurement behavior should refer to international futures prices. Sixth, frozen vegetable fruit because of strong seasonality, there is price fluctuations rigid, different seasons price difference is very large, so in the procurement behavior should be independently judged. Using the benchmark day of the stock market as the base period for analysis, the results of the study and the aforementioned roughly in line with the above-mentioned, in the business climate and the peak of the market and the trough average statistical analysis, the results of the study and the aforementioned conclusions are exactly the same, showing the reliability of the results of this study. |