本研究嘗試了解散戶投資人的賭博偏好對於其在股票市場的投資決策及交易活動的影響。過去雖有研究探討賭博偏好或動機在投資決策中的潛在作用以及對於投資人交易活動的影響，但賭博對於股票交易究竟是產生替代效果或互補效果尚無定論。因此，本文更進一步利用台灣各縣市的彩券銷售數據以及各券商分行交易資料來釐清這個效果。排除掉券商總行的交易量後，本研究所使用的券商分點資料可以更直接反映散戶的股市交易行為。以大型頭獎開獎日作為引起散戶投資人賭博心理的契機，本研究檢驗在不同賭博偏好程度下的投資人，其賭博偏好對股票交易活動的影響。實證結果指出，賭博的行為對於散戶投資人股票交易活動的影響為互補效果，即若交易日當天為大型頭獎開獎的日子，散戶投資人會傾向去交易更多的股票，特別是在具有類似彩券性質股票特徵的股票上，此現象更明顯。同時，我們也發現，相較於高賭博偏好的散戶投資人，低賭博偏好的散戶投資人在大型頭獎開獎當天，會更積極的進行股票交易。

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of gambling on individual investors' investment decisions and trading activities in the stock market. Although there have been studies in the past to explore the potential role of gambling preferences or motivations in investment decisions and the impact on investors' trading activities, it is still inconclusive whether gambling has an substitution or complementary effect on stock trading. Therefore, this article further uses the lottery sales data of counties and cities in Taiwan and the daily trading data of all security brokerage firms at the brokerage-branch level to clarify this effect. After excluding the trading volume of brokerage headquarters, the data used in this research can more directly reflect the stock market trading behavior of individual investors. By using the large jackpot days as an opportunity to induce individual investors' gambling psychology, we examine the impact of investors' gambling preferences on stock trading activities at different levels of gambling preferences. The empirical results indicate that the impact of gambling on individual investors’ stock trading activities is complementary. That is, if the stock trading day is a large jackpot day, individual investors will tend to trade more stocks, special for stocks with similar lottery characteristics. We also found individual investors with low gambling preferences will be more active in stock trading on large jackpot days, compared with individual investors with high gambling preferences.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 2
第三節 研究流程 6
第二章 文獻回顧與探討 7
第三章 研究資料與敘述統計 15
第一節 樣本 15
第二節 台灣彩券銷售及開獎 15
第三節 各縣市賭博偏好 16
第四節 類似彩券性質的股票特徵 18
第四章 實證分析 21
第一節 不同賭博偏好的散戶投資人在是否為大型頭獎日下的交易情形 21
第二節 不同賭博偏好的散戶投資人在大型頭獎日前一天的交易情形 27
第三節 不同賭博偏好的散戶投資人在大型頭獎日開獎後的交易情形 28
第五章 穩健性檢測 31
第六章 結論 33
參考文獻及資料 35
Table 1 彩券開獎次數及頭獎大小之敘述統計 39
Table 2 各縣市彩券銷售金額之敘述統計 40
Table 3 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日與整體股票的交易量差異 42
Table 4 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日與類似彩券性質的股票特徵的交易量差異 43
Table 5 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日與整體股票的交易量之變動關係 45
Table 6 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日與類似彩券性質的股票特徵交易量之變動關係 46
Table 7 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日前一天與股票交易量之變動關係 48
Table 8 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日後的一段時間與股票交易量之變動關係 50
Table 9 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日與股票交易量之變動關係 (標準化交易量) 53
Table 10 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日前一天與股票交易量之變動關係 (標準化交易量) 55
Table 11 賭博偏好、大型頭獎日後的一段時間與股票交易量之變動關係 (標準化 交易量) 57

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