近年來，台灣社會發生無預警跳電事件引發各界對電力系統的質疑，因此，為了尋求替代能源以鞏固電力系統並兼顧淨零碳排放的國際共識，政府選擇發展離岸風電，並將其納入2025年國家發展專案項目。然而，COVID-19正於此專案項目之開始階段爆發，大幅削弱勞動力量能以及阻礙其供應鏈之運作，已造成「台電一期示範風場」電網併聯與試營運延宕至少半年之久，連帶其它風場開發亦受影響。故，本研究主旨為推測受COVID-19疫情影響之下的離岸風電是否能如期達成目標裝置容量；若否，則說明其延宕程度，並給予其建議與展望。

研究方法是以Vensim模擬軟體設計兩種因果語境模型，第一種模型是計算從預組裝港口到海上安裝所運作的前置時間，其使用台電一期示範風場之數據作為受疫情影響之參考值，而未受疫情影響之參考值取自匿名受訪者；第二種模型是運算2025年台灣離岸風場之總裝置容量與總發電量，其是以前者模型所分析之數據推論2025專案計劃內風場之延宕時程，並評估其總裝置容量。最後，分析結果顯示預測之總裝置容量少於原先計劃0.31百萬瓩。受到風速條件不穩定之影響，總發電量低於總裝置容量約三倍，此彰顯儲電技術之研發對於穩定風力能源是相輔相成的。為了有效攔截更多風能，風力機將有大型化之趨勢，故，預先規劃調整所需設備或建設，才能滿足未來台灣離岸風電發展之可期需求。

In recent years, the occurrence of random power outages in Taiwan has raised doubts on the security of the power system. In order to seek for alternative energy to reinforce the power system’s stability, and also to consider the global consensus of net-zero carbon emissions, the government has decided to develop offshore wind power (OWP) which has been taken as 2025 Taiwan national development project (2025 TWOWP). However, at the starting phase of this project, the breakout of COVID-19 has significantly reduced the labor capacity and even hindered the operation of its supply chain which has caused the delayed grid connection and trial operation of “Taipower Phase I Wind Farm” for six months at least, and other offshore wind farm (OWF) projects are also affected. Therefore, this subject is to assess the feasibility of 2025 TWOWP, and give our suggestion based on the study results.

There are two causal context models (CCM) we designed on Vensim software. The first is to illustrate the way how the lead time is accumulated from the pre-assembled port to offshore installation, which uses the data of Taipower Phase I as the reference values under the pandemic impact while the reference values without the pandemic impact are from the anonymous interviewees; The second is to perform the way how the total installed capacity and power generation are computed for 2025 TWOWP which the assumed schedule of each OWF will be forecasted by the analysis of the first model. The result shows that the forecasted installed capacity has a margin of 0.31 GW from the original planned installed capacity. Due to the unstable wind conditions, the output of power generation is about three times lower than the total installed capacity, which may suggest that the R&D of electricity storage technology is complementary to keep the stability of wind energy. In order to effectively capture more wind energy on sea, it is predictable that more large-sized wind turbines will become the new trend. Therefore, it is necessary to program and adjust the relative equipment or construction in advance to satisfy the expected demand of Taiwan offshore wind power development.

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER 1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION 1
CHAPTER 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE 3
CHAPTER 1.3 RESEARCH PROCESS 3
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 5
CHAPTER 2.1 KNOWLEDGE EXPLORATION ON OFFSHORE WIND POWER 5
CHAPTER 2.1.1 Brief Introduction of Offshore Wind Power development 5
CHAPTER 2.1.2 The Complexity Management in Wind-Power Supply Chain 6
CHAPTER 2.1.3 Transportation and Logistics of Offshore Installation 6
CHAPTER 2.2 THE THEORY OF CAUSAL CONTEXT MODEL AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS 9
CHAPTER 2.2.1 Theory of CCM 9
CHAPTER 2.2.2 Theory of SD 9
CHAPTER 2.3 LEAD TIME CONTROL 10
CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 13
CHAPTER 3.1 CCM I 13
CHAPTER 3.2 CCM II 19
CHAPTER 4 MODEL APPLICATION AND RESULTS ANALYSIS 23
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION, SUGGESTION AND OUTLOOK 29
CHAPTER 5.1 CONCLUSION TO 2025 TWOWP 29
CHAPTER 5.2 SUGGESTION AND OUTLOOK TO TAIWAN OWP DEVELOPMENT 29

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