全球暖化引起的氣溫上升和降水變化，嚴重影響了樹種的存活率與生長率，間接改變了森林的碳、水循環。在全球暖化的影響下，物種會透過遷移來適應不斷變化的環境以避免生境喪失和物種滅絕。相同物種在不同海拔區間所受的溫度改變壓力不同，物種分布的上沿族群傾向增加或是擴張分布範圍，種子數量與小苗數量逐漸增加；而下沿族群面臨升溫壓力死亡率增加並縮小分布範圍，種子數量與小苗數量逐漸減少。本研究地點位於福山森林動態樣區(Fushan Forest Dynamics Plot, FFDP)，目的是了解台灣常綠闊葉林物種是否產生遷移現象。本研究首先收集台灣植物誌等文獻，探討出現於FFDP各物種在台灣的海拔分布，藉此了解不同物種在FFDP的海拔環境下面臨的環境改變壓力，並將FFDP物種分成臨上界物種、中段物種與臨下界物種。本研究提出4項預測: 1. 臨上界物種比臨下界物種的遷移現象更加明顯，因為臨下界物種會有死亡的延遲。2. 臨下界物種的死亡率較其他物種高。3. 臨下界物種的種子量與小苗新增數會隨時間逐漸下降而臨上界物種的種子量與小苗新增數會逐漸上升。4. 臨上界物種與臨下界物種的種子量與小苗新增數變化趨勢會有顯著差異。本研究選擇了超過100棵個體以上的樹種（59種），計算2004和2019年各樹種分布範圍的平均海拔、上沿和下沿，以探討每個物種的海拔高度變化，並使用空模型 (null model)分析來檢驗每個物種其長期海拔高度變化是否顯著。研究結果顯示59種物種中有三分之一的物種其平均海拔有顯著向上的現象，但臨上界物種並沒有比臨下界物種更有顯著往高海拔遷移的趨勢。此外，臨下界物種的死亡率也沒有高於其他物種。利用ANCOVA分析比較臨上下界物種的種子產量與小苗新增數量，透過混合線性模型分析(LMM)以驗證預測3、4。結果並沒有發現臨上下界物種的種子產量與新增小苗數量的差異，也沒有發現臨上界物種的種苗增加或是臨下界物種的種苗減少的現象。研究結果表明FFDP物種對以溫度上升為基礎的預測遷移趨勢並不明顯，有許多可能影響物種遷移的其他因素，例如不同物種對溫度上升的反應不同，又或許是FFDP的微氣候變化對樹木的影響遠大於全球暖化所造成的影響，皆可能導致無法觀察到物種的遷移趨勢。

Climate change caused by global warming, including rising temperatures and changes in precipitation, has severely impacted many forest trees. Plants exhibited different strategy, such as migration, to adapt to the constantly changing environment to avoid habitat loss and species extinction. Migration refers to the current population distribution pattern change to a more suitable environment than it is in the past. The migration of plants is usually driven by increasing temperature, which population move to areas of high altitudes with relatively low temperatures. Past studies have pointed out that migration occurs mostly in high latitudes and temperate regions, and the response of tropical forests to rising temperatures is unclear. The purpose of this study is to understand the response mechanism of Taiwan's evergreen broad-leaved forest to climate change. Our Study is occurred in Fushan Subtropical Forest Dynamics Plot(FFDP),located in Taiwan. FFDP has rich forest resources and long-term forest dynamics research records. The relationship between forest dynamics records and temperature environmental factors is used to explore the mechanism of climate change on subtropical forests. First, I select tree species with more than 100 individuals (59 species), found the each species's mean elevation, leading edge and trailing edge of 2004 and 2019. Comparing the two of data, we can see the changes in altitude of each species, Then used the null model analysis to test whether the long-term altitude change of each species was significant. The results show that one third of the studied species have a significant upward trend in their average altitude, however, the upper species and lower species did not migrate to higher altitudes more significantly than the mid-range species. Further analysis to see whether the mortality rate of the critical species was higher than that of other species, but did not reveal the trend. Subsequent analyses using seedling and seed data for each species did not reveal an increase in seedlings of upper species or a decrease in seedlings of lower species. There are many possibilities that affect species migration, such as different species responding differently to rising temperatures or the Fushan microclimate change is much greater than global warming.

摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
致謝 III
目錄 V
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 VIII
第一章 前言 1
第二章 文獻探討 1
2.1 溫度上升對樹木的影響 1
2.2 森林對氣候變遷的反應 3
2.2.1 遷移 (migrate) 3
2.2.2 馴化 (acclimate) 4
2.2.3 適應 (adapt) 5
2.3 探討物種遷移 6
2.3.1 透過物種平均海拔探討遷移 6
2.3.2 透過物種分布範圍探討遷移 6
2.3.3 透過種子與小苗探討遷移 8
2.4 假說與預測 9
第三章 研究方法 9
3.1 研究地點與氣候資料 9
3.2 資料選取原則與海拔資料處理 11
3.3 物種平均海拔與分布範圍的空模型建立 12
3.4 樹木死亡率、種子、小苗的分析 13
第四章 結果 15
4.1 FFDP的溫度變化與臨上下界物種判斷 15
4.2 空模型分析 16
4.3 死亡率、種子量與新增小苗分析 18
第五章 討論 19
5.1 影響物種遷移的複雜原因 19
5.2 影響種子量與新增小苗變化的不同觀點 22
5.3 研究的改進空間 24
第六章 結論 25
第七章 引用文獻 27
附錄一 本研究之物種名錄 58

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