本文以台灣上市上櫃公司為樣本，探討採用國際財務報導準則第16號(IFRS16)以後，對未來盈餘預測能力之影響。本文將樣本以受IFRS16影響程度分類為影響大樣本及影響小樣本，實證結果顯示：(1)在影響大樣本中，由於採用IFRS16以前存在較多資產負債表外融資，因此帳列融資租賃資產不具未來盈餘預測能力；而採用IFRS16以後，由於影響大樣本公司認列較多與創造未來收入有關之租賃資產，且融資租賃資產同時蘊含著資產與負債的資訊，因此融資租賃資產與未來盈餘呈現負相關，類似於負債性質。(2)在影響小樣本中，採用IFRS16以前較不存在資產負債表外融資，其帳列融資租賃資產已蘊含較多與創造未來收入有關之資訊，且由於融資租賃資產同時蘊含著資產與負債的資訊，因此融資租賃資產與未來盈餘呈現負相關，類似於負債性質；而採用IFRS16以後，由於影響小樣本公司認列更多與創造未來收入無關之租賃資產，導致採用IFRS16以後，帳列融資租賃資產不具未來盈餘預測能力。(3)敏感性分析結果顯示，採用IFRS16以後，航運業樣本之盈餘持續性顯著提高。

This paper takes listed companies in Taiwan as the sample to investigate the effects of the ability to predict future earnings after adopting IFRS16. Because samples have the different degrees of effects by the new standard, this paper classifies the sample into two groups: large-affected sample and small-affected sample. The empirical results show that: (1) In the large-affected sample, because there was more off-balance sheet financing before the adoption of IFRS16, financial leased assets did not have the ability to predict future earnings. After the adoption of IFRS16, the large-affected sample companies recognized more leased assets that were related to generating future income. Because financial leased assets contain information both about assets and liabilities, financial leased assets are negatively correlated with future earnings. (2) In the small-affected sample, because there was less off-balance sheet financing before the adoption of IFRS16, financial leased assets had contained more information about generating future income. Because financial leased assets contain information both about assets and liabilities, financial leased assets are negatively correlated with future earnings. After the adoption of IFRS16, because the small-affected sample companies recognized more leased assets that were not related to generating future income, financial leased assets did not have the ability to predict future earnings. (3) Sensitivity analysis results show that earnings persistence of the shipping industry sample has been significantly increased after the adoption of IFRS16.

第壹章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究流程與架構 2
第貳章 租賃準則之會計處理沿革 5
第一節 背景沿革 5
第二節 IFRS16與IAS17之差異 7
第參章 文獻探討與假說發展 15
第一節 盈餘持續性相關文獻 15
第二節 研究假說發展 15
第肆章 研究設計 19
第一節 研究期間與樣本篩選 19
第二節 實證模型與變數定義 23
第伍章 實證結果與分析 27
第一節 敘述性統計 27
第二節 相關性分析 33
第三節 迴歸分析與實證結果 38
第四節 敏感性分析 48
第陸章 結論與建議 51
第一節 結論 51
第二節 建議與限制 52

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