隨著科技進步和資訊流通的快速發展，供應鏈的流通速度、效率與日俱增，但在2020年因為疫情爆發，許多企業停產，導致下游產業無法收到原物料，造成供應鏈出現大規模供應中斷，並且物價發生上漲，使人們又再一次的重視中斷的負面影響及維持足夠存量的重要性。
本研究根據隨機指數分布模擬供給的不穩定性，並假設此供應鏈中在某一時間會發生價格上漲，同時零售商可以訂購最後一次的原價產品，為了將漲價期間的供貨率維持在一定水準，本研究將改變漲價時的訂購點，更改過的訂購點可以確保零售商的服務水準至少維持與漲價前同樣服務水準。接著本研究對相關係數做敏感度分析，並了解到各系數與更改後的訂購點、單位訂購成本、單位存貨成本以及單位缺貨成本的影響。並對後續研究給出方向與建議。

Over the past 20 years, technology has been improving. The circulation speed and efficiency of the supply chain are increasing day by day. However, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, many enterprises stopped production resulting in the inability of downstream industries to receive raw materials. The result is supply chain face large-scale interruptions and price increase. It makes people realized the negative impact of disruptions and the importance of maintaining adequate inventory.
This study simulates the instability of supply based on the random exponential distribution, and assumes that a price increase will occur at a certain time in the supply chain. When the price increase, the retailer can order the last original price product. In order to maintain the supply rate at a certain level during the price increase period, this research will change the order point during the price increase. The changed order point can ensure that the service level of the retailer is at least the same as before the price increase. Next, this study conducts a sensitivity analysis on the correlation coefficients, and understands the impact of each coefficient on the changed order point, unit order cost, unit inventory cost, and unit stock-out cost. And give directions and suggestions for follow-up research.

摘要 I
Abstract III
目錄 V
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 IX
附錄目錄 XI
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究範圍 2
1.4 研究流程與架構 3
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1 供應鏈與存貨管理 5
2.2 供應鏈中斷 8
2.3 價格與存貨管理 11
第三章 模式建構與分析 15
3.1 問題描述與研究假設 15
3.2 變數之符號定義 16
3.3 模型建構與分析 17
3.4 小節 22
第四章 範例與數值分析 25
4.1 模擬程式檢驗與分析 25
4.2 訂購點之模擬 32
4.3 敏感度分析 34
第五章 結論與建議 40
5.1 結論 40
5.2 未來研究方向與建議 41
參考文獻 42
附錄 46

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